Rosehill Gardens Preview: Saturday 30 March

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Soft 7 (Thursday)

Rail: +6m entire

Weather: 5-10mm rain predicted Friday, possible light shower Saturday

If the predicted Friday rain eventuates, Rosehill will likely be flirting with a third straight Saturday in the Heavy range. The rail shifts out to the +6m position – they were steering towards the middle of the straight last Saturday and that trend should continue here.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: A field of 12 for the G3 Schweppervescence. Bellevue Hill only knows one way and will go straight to the front while Le Tene can follow it across. The rest will be content to settle midfield – perhaps Fortress Command is handier from barrier two.

Advantaged runners: This is a slight afterthought for Slipper emergency BELLEVUE HILL but his record reads well for this and he’ll make his own luck in front. LA TENE was huge winning the VRC Sires at Flemington and she has the 1400m experience the toppy lacks. ROME and STRASBOURG both present second up off 1200m runs in Group company. Big watch on FORTRESS COMMAND who went through his gears nicely to win the Beaumont Handicap.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: The likes of Almost Court and Taikomochi typically enjoy rolling along close to the speed and they can make the pace here. Moss ‘n’ Dale will be close up from barrier one while Main Stage gets a chance to slide up and settle closer here.

Advantaged runners: No surprise to see the Gelagotis camp chasing more wet track Group success in Sydney with MOSS ’N’ DALE. He’ll get every chance to repeat the dose with the gun run. HARLEM’s inclusion is fascinating – but the Australian Cup winner is no swimmer. The Busuttin/Young pair of TAVAGO and MAIN STGE profile to improve sharply here, respect for GOATHLAND too who brings Red Cardinal form – he’s a G1 chance today.

RACE 3

Speed map/race shape: The map is once again fairly straightforward in the G2 Tulloch, with Cossetot and Shaman likely to look for the front from Angel Of Truth Firstclass Dreamer. The Kiwis will likely settle midfield and beyond. Don’t expect a particularly onerous tempo.

Advantaged runners: There’s a few Kiwis making strong cases here, with MADISON COUNTY leading the charge. He was a late scratching from the Guineas last week and looks an even better chance here. His turn of foot gives him the edge over compatriots IN A TWINKLING and PLATINUM INVADOR who filled the placings in the NZ Derby. COSSETOT is the Aussie who is up and running, he’s also two from two on rain affected ground and may look to control the tempo from the front.

RACE 4

Speed map/race shape: Daysee Doom can control the Emancipation from the front, with no real challengers for the lead. Dyslexic may slide through to be handy, perhaps Naantali from wide can cross over as well, but there doesn’t look to be much urgency here.

Advantaged runners: ALIZEE holds the aces, obviously. All her runs this prep would win this. Barrier 10 probably isn’t ideal but at least Shinn can keep her out of trouble. DAYSEE DOOM was okay first up and will receive less pressure here. She missed a run in the Coolmore – of those who tackled that race, PRINCESS POSH appears to be going best of all. DYSLEXIC ran a better race over this track/distance than any of the Coolmore runners on the same day and can race handily again. They’ll all need to pull out plenty to beat Alizee.

RACE 5

Speed map/race shape: In contrast to the early events, we’re expecting a fair bit of pressure in the G3 Star Kingdom. Estijaab has drawn widest but should press on and tackle Fiery Heights and speedy Kiwi Ardrossan for the front. Manuel has been on the pace at Group 1 level this prep so will also look to be prominent.

Advantaged runners: There’s a bit to like about MANUEL’s set up here. He’s been racing over further (and in better company) and the fitness base will serve him well in a tough 1200m event. The up and comer is 2018 Slipper winner ESTIJAAB who has hardly been disgraced at two runs this prep, she just needs luck early to feature. TREKKING was a drifter in betting when a length off Easy Eddie last start, that turned out to be Group 1 form! He’s the most likely of the closers. Plenty of respect for ARDROSSAN, he’s unbeaten on Soft going and gets the services of top jockey James McDonald.

RACE 6

Speed map/race shape: Greysful Glamour was mistakenly restrained at Kembla, but they won’t make the same mistake again. The lead is hers for the taking in the G1 Vinery, with Autumn, Aristia and Seabrook from out wider to all race prominently.

Advantaged runners: The Vinery is shaping up as a fantastic race between a seriously good bunch of fillies. EL DORADO DREAMING took on the older mares in the G1 Coolmore. They ran a quicker time than the fillies in the G2 Phar Lap on the same day, which was won by VERRY ELLEEGANT. Of all the Phar Lap runners, QAFILA is most advantaged by the step up to 2000m here, but she remains unproven in the wet. Then of course there’s NAKEETA JANE who has been given three weeks to recover from taking on The Autumn Sun! She may have run her Grand Final though? Impossible to ignore the ‘sectional star’ POHUTUKAWA, she smashed them in the Kembla Classic. No real knock on the others. Cracker!

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: The speed runner has drawn wide in the G1 Tancred, bu don’t expect Ace High to face much opposition crossing over. Vengeur Masque and Ventura Storm can be handy while Avilius should settle midfield from barrier seven.

Advantaged runners: The key to the Tancred is clearly AVILIUS and how well he has backed up from last week’s dominant performance in the G1 Ranvet. The distance is no issue but he’s had a couple of Grand Finals now and this may be asking a lot of the horse. If we were to look elsewhere, RED CARDINAL is the standout. He’s turned a corner this preparation and the wet tracks are likely playing a key role. Stablemate BIG DUKE is also on the back up and is ready to peak. RODINELLA is a genuine each-way hope coming off a G1 NZ Stakes placing.

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: A relative lack of pressure in the G3 Doncaster Prelude should allow Mask Of Time and Tom Melbourne to stroll through and lead. There’s an opportunity for Don’t Give A Damn to cross and join Siege Of Quebec in the trail, with Seaway not far away.

Advantaged runners: MASK OF TIME was overhauled by Fifty Stars in the last few strides in the Ajax. He’s developed a liking for this track and distance and the map is favourable, but he does cop a 4.5kg weight penalty for that effort. The start prior he was beaten home by SEAWAY who was luckless in the Ajax. He gets the weight swing but a genuine Heavy track remains a query for him. SIEGE OF QUEBEC gets all the favours in the run, his only Heavy start was in better company so should be given the benefit of the doubt.

RACE 9

Speed map/race shape: If Don’t Give A Damn choses this option instead of the Doncaster Prelude he can lead from barrier two, with Special Missile joining him. Spring Charlie and Mahalangur, while the likes of Zourkhan and Get On The Grande may get stuck wider.

Advantaged runners: STAR OF THE SEAS gets the chance to go back to back. He returns to the scene of the crime and isn’t too badly penalised for running straight past MAHALANGUR, who once again makes a strong case and will be prominent in running. SPRING CHARLIE has an imposing record and this trip is right in his wheelhouse, fitness is the query after five weeks between runs. Wary of RENEWAL who got the job done first up but is yet to produce his best at 1400m. Respect for DON’T GIVE A DAMN who enjoys rain-affected going and could get things to suit in front.

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