- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4 (Thursday)
Rail: +1m entire
Persistent niggling rain in the lead up to Saturday means we’re flirting with a Soft surface for the 10-race card. The rail is back to the +1m position – the inside six metres hasn’t been used for a month and inside lanes/rails in run may be favourable.
Speed map/race shape: The speed comes from nearer the inside courtesy of Bella Occhi and Boom Chicka Boom, who can take it up from Lord Barrington and Masterati.
Advantaged runners: The tempo doesn’t look too frantic and those front-runners look most advantaged. BOOM CHICKA BOOM is a known fresh sprinter and presents off an eight-week layoff here. His record on Soft isn’t flash but things didn’t quite work out for him at either start. MASTERATI never runs a bad race but hasn’t won for a while, while BELLA OCCHI was scratched from Wednesday to run here and could try and lead the whole way. Don’t dismiss SUNDARBANS – she has mixed it in good company but was recently cast aside by the Hawkes stable, from barrier one she just needs the breaks to feature.
Speed map/race shape: Ballistic Boy and Quart Pot both showed speed on debut and will be looking for the fence. Time For Love copped a bad check in a recent rich two-year-old race, she will be very handy from barrier two while Magic Palace can cross from the deep.
Advantaged runners: Very interesting circumstances here for the best performed horse in the race, MISS CAVALLO. She possesses a devastating turn of foot but she won’t be helped by the predicted pattern. In contrast BALLISTIC BOY should be in the right spot. He backed up a super trial with a debut win, but he’s unknown in the wet. So too is MAGIC PALACE, who beat inferior opposition with arrogance on debut. The step up to 1200m should suit though. THIRD MARTINI faces a similar predicament to Miss Cavallo, SAY HAYA can be forgiven for a defeat behind Niedorp and expensive Gollan debutant PURRONI should be watched in betting.
Speed map/race shape: Trommelschlagen doesn’t look like having much opposition for the lead over 1600m, Bargannon should be handy, but the leader can run his own race.
Advantaged runners: With every downgrade HALLELUJAH BOY’s stocks grow in this race. The form is relatively even among these runners but he’s the real swimmer. TROMMELSCHLAGEN also handles the wet and will be in front turning for home, he’s developed an affinity with this track and distance. BARGANNON chased him home last time and will be closer in the run here. Both EMINENT and LE JUGE also hold genuine chances, but would prefer things to stay drier to maximise their talents.
Speed map/race shape: Not the best Saturday staying crop we’ve seen. Remarkable Son is 1400m > 2200m so surely pushes forward from the carpark to join High Wind and Own Sweet Way at the pointy end.
Advantaged runners: This is a messy race. HIGH WIND was disappointing last start but was a runner up prior under similar conditions to this event. Any sting out helps him, as it does REMARKABLE SON who is sharply up in trip but will be in the right part of the track. Arguably ALLCASH’s Sydney form is stronger than the rest here – it has stood up from his last outing already. He’ll be running on from the rear alongside SEENTO.
Speed map/race shape: Zahspeed only knows one way and he will try and find the front, he will need to cross Tonsor who might not make things easy. Stella Ombra and Courtza King from wider will adopt forward positions.
Advantaged runners: Matthew Smith has sent TONSOR north to escape to escape the Stakes racing in Sydney and finds a suitable assignment for him here. He can lead or trail from the inside alley, has a strong rider engaged and enjoys the sting out – on ratings he will go close. TAWFIQ BOY continues to ‘run on’ without ever really threatening to win, perhaps the extra trip and sting out is what he needs. COURTZA KING needs an assertive ride early but if he can slot in one off the fence he’s a chance, he’s developed a liking for the track and trip.
Speed map/race shape: Deep Image is the designated leader here and will be making tracks across the field to lead. Lota Creek Gold possesses some speed and can follow him across, while Impasse and Secret Mo will be looking for the trail.
Advantaged runners: DEEP IMAGE didn’t run the mile last time but he did pants them over 1400m first up. Freshened here and dropping back to this distance range, he’ll take some catching. He’ll be tracked into the race by IMPASSE who could be well placed to strike, he’s just missed at both efforts this prep. SECRET MO went back to the provincials to regain his winning feeling, he’s a hope at odds. Expect BEACON to be scratched (won Wednesday).
Speed map/race shape: The topweights The Tax Accountant and Al’s Kingdom should stroll to the front and lead this at a moderate gallop. Kitty Kins can also be handy.
Advantaged runners: THE TAX ACCOUNTANT was only a long neck behind the in-form Mishani Hustler last start. Stretching out to 1350m here should allow him to settle further forward in the run and continue his progression. Fellow front runner AL’S KINGDOM was scratched from Wednesday to resume here. This is short of his best trip but he’s a bold on-pacer. They’ll have a big head start on MILLARD REACTION who mowed a midweek field down on debut. The three-year-old faces a sharp rise in trip here but has oodles of talent. Respect for SOXAGON and MACEWEN who will also be looking to run on from the back.
Speed map/race shape: King Dinisty and Prince Of Tie are numbers 12 and 13 on the race card and they’ve drawn barrier 12 and 13 here. But they also have the most speed and will want to cross to the front. Brains will want to follow them across and join Tisani Magic.
Advantaged runners: This is the second division of the 1350m Class 6 event. KING DINISTY was last seen leading until the shadows of the post over 1615m. That run may give him a fitness edge over PRINCE OF TIE, over whom he gets a 1.5kg weight swing for running a close second the start prior. TISANI MAGIC seems to be putting it all together now as a four-year-old. His last start suggested he’s looking for the extra trip and he should secure a great run in transit. RIVER RACER has been freshened after failing at this level at Eagle Farm, as has BRAINS, while I AM IMPINGE has ability but will get back in the run.
Speed map/race shape: Lots of pressure from out wide in the 1200m event. Gypsy Toff and Zollikon Miss are the main speedsters but there’s a handful that can join them including Bonsho, Hirtshals and Malign. Plenty of runners drawn low have speed but may not want to absorb relentless pressure.
Advantaged runners: Looking to the filly WINTER PASSAGE to take it up to the older mares. She’s missed the placings only once in 13 starts and is perfectly positioned to strike off the hot tempo. Her form ties in with SPLITTER who scored a nice first up win over this trip. Chasing home Manaya has given her a good base for this, but she won’t want to get bundled up on the rail. FELINO BEL returned in good order and can be improved second up, while CYMBALISM has been freshened and sent back in trip after a 1350m win at this track.
Speed map/race shape: The speed comes from lower draws here but it will be on nonetheless. Rising Stock will want to use the rail and hold the front, but he’ll be pressured by Cabeirian, Comic Story and Mail Escort.
Advantaged runners: The last event on the card is for the boys division of the non metro winners. TOTALLY CHARMED is scratched from the first to run here. First up over 1000m he ground home well and will enjoy 1200m. Another horse who appreciates this track and trip is BUCK BAY, who scored on his Queensland debut – second has subsequently won. ALL PLUCK, CABEIRIAN, COMIC STORY and HAPPY HOOVES are all last start winners – if we were to single out one of them, perhaps the latter can peak third up here.