- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Soft 5
Rail: +9.5m entire
Weather: Possibly light showers
We’re back at Doomben again, but this time the rail has been taken all the way out to 9.5m for the entire course. This should see a likely leader-advantaged pattern prevail early, but there is the risk in high pressure races of riders overdoing it and bringing closers into play.
Speed map/race shape: This speed map is a lottery. Neither of the two fastest horses on paper, Aengus and Max The Dream, have raced for three years.
Advantaged runners: Our job is to talk it up but races like this at metro at metro level test the creativity. FLOWER OF LOVE is an ex-Waller horse with reasonable NSW metro form. She and FEARLESS QUEEN, who returns from a short spell and enjoyed a reasonable first prep, should settle handily enough and come into contention late. Respect to AENGUS who has clearly endured issues but was a well-supported commodity at his only career start, coming in June 2016 at Morphettville as a two-year-old.
Speed map/race shape: Hit Snooze has found his groove as an on-pacer and should lead from Shooting Love who can use the inside draw to advantage.
Advantaged runners: This is much more like it! HIT SNOOZE has proven her wares as a bold front-runner beating three of today’s rivals in her last two starts. That said, she only met THIRD MARTINI over 1200m and that horse was mowing her down late – advantage to the Martini over 1350m here. The other major form line comes from a fortnight ago behind Zac Attack. FA FA ran second there but SHOOTING LOVE was arguably more impressive on debut when dragging the field up to the runaway leaders. She will be better for the outing.
Speed map/race shape: William draws the pole marker and that should give him the chance to hold the lead from Pistolero. There’s a number of runners keen to be handy, which may mean the likes of Coral Coast and Willy Be Lucky settle further back than they’d ideally like.
Advantaged runners: There’s a handful of runners here with Benchmark ratings of 50 and below. Two of the better commodities are PISTOLERO and TAVISFACTION. The former broke his maiden last start at Toowoomba by eight lengths on wet ground, but remains an unknown over 2000m+. That hands the advantage to Tavisfaction, who stepped up sharply in distance to break his maiden at this track and distance a fortnight ago. He can go on with it here. CORAL COAST was outclassed in Listed company last time and is a major contender, but could get a long way back from the draw.
Speed map/race shape: Not a great deal of speed to speak of on paper, with Hard Yaga and Lucky Fix the fastest of the exposed runners. Not too much trial speed form the debutants.
Advantaged runners: Five of 12 make their first race day appearance. VEGA ONE is the most experienced running in the field and the most overdue for a win. At his first run for Tony Gollan he jumped at $1.40 but came up second best against Millard Reaction, who blitzed them again last Saturday. HARD YAGA was twice placed in his first prep and the sting out is no concern, the track pattern may suit him here. BRAHMA ARMOUR and LOTZA nest best.
Speed map/race shape: Solid early speed from out wide with the emergencies Loves Woger Wing and Morgause keen to scoot over and lead. But if they don’t get a run, Lashoni can take things up from Kitty Damour and Roxy’s A Star.
Advantaged runners: This is the fillies division of the three-year-old maiden, with just two first starters. LASHONI finished third to Millard Reaction/Vega One last start. She’s desperate for a win with six placings from nine and from an on-pace position gets her chance. FAST AND HOPEFUL has shown she handles a wet track and ran second in a recent trial to one of today’s debutants BOOM COUNTY who looks above average. She and fellow first starter DIVINE MISS BOOM come from a bloodline producing outstanding results.
Speed map/race shape: These front runners could get away with murder. Kilmacurragh, Shauquin and Six Sigma should settle top three in running in a leisurely tempo. Downloading and Toga Picta will head the rest of the pack.
Advantaged runners: Hard to knock the work of SIX SIGMA last start. He stepped up to this track and distance and dominated from the front, this shapes up as a very similar outing. KILMACURRAGH is the other on-pacer worth considering, he has been banished by the Hawkes stable and may benefit from the change of scenery. His best Sydney/Melbourne form stacks up well. THE CANDY MAN has had a few months in the paddock following a productive summer campaign. He’s better over further but if he can extricate himself from a potentially awkward position back on the fence he’s the strongest finisher here.
Speed map/race shape: Solid tempo set up by the runners jumping from wider gates. Napoleon’s War should have the most early toe of them all, but any of Alfie Junior, Armet, Lefkas Island and Portsea can go across with him and keep him honest.
Advantaged runners: Of the on-pacers, NAPOLEON’S WAR makes the most compelling case as a last start mile winner in similar grade on the Heavy. He was only second up there too. But we may see some of the run-on horses advantaged here by the pressure up front. BELLE ROC will need a clever ride from barrier one but she’s the filly on the way up among this lot and is knocking on the door of a win. LEFKAS ISLAND and CERTAIN DOUBT were both taking ground off in-form winners at their most recent starts and must be considered, while SORNJA comes into the picture if you’re willing to forgive her last start flop.
Speed map/race shape: Some bold front-runners will ensure they run this 1200m assignment at a decent clip. Dinnigan and Zollikon Miss possess the most early toe, with Emerald Kingdom and I Dream Of Green making them work for the top.
Advantaged runners: DINNIGAN is the ex-Waterhouse speedster now under the care of Tony Gollan. She returned from a year off the scene with a win here and go back-to-back under good front-running jockey Brad Stewart. She won’t want to come under too much pressure otherwise the race could set up nicely for I DREAM OF GREEN who should trail her from barrier one. His form ties in with ENTERPRISE MARCH who has also acquitted himself well in better company this preparation. BACHELOR’S ART was out-paced over 900m last time out and can improve here.