- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4
Rail: +6m entire
Weather: Fine, cool
Our third straight Wednesday on the Lakeside track, where we expect the surface to dry into the Good range come race day. The rail moves out to the six-metre position and if recent events are anything to go by then on-pace will again be preferable.
Speed map/race shape: Seven of the nine having their first go. Too much guesswork in this speed map.
Advantaged runners: Hard to get too caught up in this race with so many unknowns. WEDGETAIL wasn’t quite up to stakes company in his first prep and went down as an easing favourite first up. He is on notice here. HE’LL HAUNT US struggled against better on debut and is a candidate to improve sharply. Of the debutants, DESERVED has made the best impression with two trial wins. Relying on the market may not even be of use here!
Speed map/race shape: Three go-forward horses here but My Biddy should beat them off to lead Camilla Lucinda, with Prepare To Win grabbing the leader’s back. Expect Williams to steady the tempo if he finds the front on My Biddy and turn it into a sit and sprint.
Advantaged runners: Disappointing turn out among the fillies and mares. That said, MY BIDDY makes a compelling case. Craig Williams has a superb strike rate riding for uncle Doug Harrison and the brought up a double last week. As for the horse, she’s a speedy ex-Tasmanian who has switched camps after three runs this prep. In two of those runs she knocked up in Group 3 company, in the other she was beaten a length by Mystic Journey. Nothing here brings form close to that level but both PREPARE TO WIN and PRIVATE LOUNGE drop out of Saturday grade, KINGS BROOK was a first up Valley winner and MISS VIXEN started favourite against Clarice Cliffs two starts ago.
Speed map/race shape: Noted on-pacer Chorus should bounce to the front from barrier one and there looks to only be minimal pressure. Perhaps See Me Exceed and Dalswinton can also race handily in the eight-horse field.
Advantaged runners: If CHORUS gets an easy run in front, she might be hard to haul in. This isn’t a huge rise in grade but she will need to be on her game to hold out ANDAZ, who is tackling the easiest assignment he’s faced in years. The 3kg claim for Queensland apprentice Stephanie Lacy is huge. SEE ME EXCEED was well beaten behind a good one here a fortnight ago but 1400m may be more her go these days. LAZY BEAR handed Chorus her only defeat this prep, but was handed plenty of favours that day and this shapes up differently.
Speed map/race shape: A bit more pressure in this one. Canelo and Cilauro prefer to race handily but they’ll need to make tracks from wide to do so. The likes of High Ratio and Helvetian might not make that too easy for them though.
Advantaged runners: All eyes will be on the market to determine how assertively GOLDEN HALO will be ridden from barrier one. Teo Nugent has his work cut out from the inside barrier but this filly is clearly the standout and brings Anjana form. It is hard to knock the efforts of HIGH RATIO last start after sitting outside the leader, depending on how the early stages pan out he may get a perfect one-one sit. Keep an eye on LASSITER who rounded them up stylishly on debut at Bendigo, if she’s come on from that she’s a live hope.
Speed map/race shape: Team Williams sends three to the midweek distance event to make things interesting (read: unpredictable). Conventional speed maps have the trio of Sirkos, Latin Beat and Pour Vous all handy, while Fanciful Toff and Argyle Belle will also be handy.
Advantaged runners: Fair play to FANCIFUL TOFF who has found a nice little spot at this distance range. He’s beaten LATIN BEAT home at their last two starts, most recently THE DELPHI got the better of them both. All three have been handed significant weight imposts here. Of Lloyd’s crew, POUR VOUS makes the best case – he’s lightly raced and enjoyed a nice fitness-building run at Flemington. That form brings EL DON into the equation. ETNA raced in inferior ground last time at Morphettville and should be judged on his two strong runs prior, he’s a previous win at this distance range in France. FUTURE SCORE is untested at this trip but has been building into it nicely judging by his last two efforts.
Speed map/race shape: There’s a few who wouldn’t mind racing forward here. Samoon is the main speedster and stepping up in distance she’ll cross over to lead. Expect True Magic to settle outside her, while jostling for the ‘gun run’ may lead to a three-wide line forming.
Advantaged runners: This is a really good fillies race littered with winning form. We’ll be referring back to it for a while you feel. NESSUNA FIDUCIA maps for a kinder run here – she was a little keen and things didn’t really go her way first up. TYSONIC arguably did it tougher though and beat her home. They’ve draw one-two today. LIVEINTHEFASTLANE couldn’t match it with Pohutukawa at Kembla but that’s no knock, she beat NORDIC SYMPHONY by a lip prior. If they’re making up ground from the back then DARK CONFIDANT comes into the equation, she’s a Pierro filly with considerable talent but may spot them a big start. Don’t discount ZARGOS either who is a candidate for a major form reversal here.
Speed map/race shape: The wide runners in Desidero, Judy In Disguise and Scramjet provide the early speed, while Hardern and Royal Thunder receive lovely trips just behind them.
Advantaged runners: Looking towards the three-year-olds in a field with a few old mates. ADANA was luckless in the Alister Clark and couldn’t keep up in the Guineas prior. He plummets in grade here and if Lane makes use of the good draw will be difficult to hold out. SCRAMJET is at the other end of the spectrum, stepping up from a dominant Class 1 victory, but has an ideal racing pattern. JUDYINDISGUISE is entitled to improve sharply after absorbing plenty of pressure first up. A few of their rivals have had a few chances, but we’re prepared to give another to each of BOLTOUTOFTHEBLUE, ROYAL THUNDER and WEAPON.
Speed map/race shape: Analytica went forward on debut and will likely to the same again here along with Debate, Igniter and Ocean Essence in an even tempo.
Advantaged runners: We may well have saved the best for last – most of these will win a Saturday race one day. But things are tricky here because the best ‘form’ comes via the back-markers, specifically RONAN’S ROCK and BIG NIGHT OUT who could have too much to do. ORCEIN also brings Saturday form but this map is a car crash for him. Perhaps it is IGNITER then who holds the aces. His Spring form reads a win, placings behind Mr Quickie and Declares War, and two further runs chasing home Ringerdingding. He may get the ‘right run’. MAKFI AMOUR deserves respect as the only horse to ever beat the progressive Stocktaka, as do DEBATE and OCEAN ESSENCE. Tricky finish!