- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4
Rail: +10m entire
Weather: Mostly fine, potential light showers
First of four consecutive Saturdays at Caulfield and the rail is out a whopping 10m here. In the circle races (1400m+) there should be a slight advantage to horses on pace/rails in run. For the shorter chute races, the far outside fast lanes could come into play.
Speed map/race shape: A fair few unknowns among the babies in race one, but expecting a reasonable enough speed courtesy of Order Of Valour, Meuse and newcomer Peak.
Advantaged runners: Six of the 10 are having their first race day outing. Our two previous winners received a few favours. ORDER OF VALOUR was suited by the pattern of the day leading all the way at Kyneton, while MEUSE stacked them up at Bendigo and turned it into a sit and sprint. Regardless, both deserve respect as does MEMPHIS ROCK returning in weaker company. PEAK was the most impressive of the debutants at the trials but both FLOSTAR and LIL’ ANGEL come from camps in superb form at present.
Speed map/race shape: Hard to envisage a situation where Mihany doesn’t push on from wide to find the front, with Intueri following him over. Key hopes Danon Roman and Heir To The Throne can secure prime trails just in behind the speed.
Advantaged runners: We’re yet to see DANON ROMAN win on our shores – in fact, his only victory was on debut in Japan in December 2016 – but he really does get all the favours here. He’ll be better for the first up fitness-builder behind KAZIO and just needs the breaks turning for him. It is a similar story for HEIR TO THE THRONE who ran on for second in a leader-dominated affair resuming. Both could have the jump on I GOT YOU who is building towards a win but may find himself in traffic, while INTUERI could find himself working hard dragging the field up to Mihany.
Speed map/race shape: Pria Eclipse looks likely to find the front in a muddling affair from Pure Scot crossing over, with Think Bleue and Remember The Name slotting in behind.
Advantaged runners: Just eight mares tackling this mile event but there’s a bit of overlapping form. Both of THINK BLEUE’s efforts this prep have been in Group company – her only start outside of Stakes grade in the past 12 months was a Flemington win. She can bounce back of a flat second up run when finishing two lengths adrift of PURE SCOT who placed in the Matron Stakes. That mare has barely put a foot wrong in recent times but may provide cover to REMEMBER THE NAME who should receive an ideal run. LA TIGRESSA will be trying to round them all up, she’ll need all of her turn of foot with this track pattern.
Speed map/race shape: Duke Of Magnus can find the front here from Smiling City and Sir Harald, Starouz and Esthetic from low draws won’t be far away either. No surprise to see the leaders stack them up here and make it a sprint home.
Advantaged runners: It is impossible to knock the record of MR QUICKIE who just keeps winning. He’s been beautifully managed (owned by Peter Moody), just easing through his grades and he strikes another winnable race here. The major query is the pattern – if they’re struggling to make ground in the circle races, his racing pattern won’t be suited. Nor will STAR MISSILE who followed him home at Mornington or WINNING PARTNER who trailed him in the start before that! If you can forgive DUKE OF MAGNUS his flop in the Mornington Guineas, he’s the one who could give some on-pace cheek.
Speed map/race shape: Back to the chute for a fillies-only sprint. News Girl is a speedy customer and she’ll pave the way for fellow wide runners Enbihaar, Lady Day, Lady Pluck and Tell Me to all follow her across.
Advantaged runners: This race will test our theory of a slingshot into the outside lanes from the chute. If it is on the money then LADY PLUCK will be hard to hold out. She’s been too good for her rivals in Tasmania and her last trip to Melbourne brought a third to Smart Melody. She’ll be hooking out with TELL ME who appeared to appreciate her Melbourne switch and featherweight winning at The Valley. Handling that tight configuration is a big tick for here and 3kg claimer Poy retains the ride. THINE IS THE POWER is threatening to win and will get the cold sit on them here, her form ties in with pace setter NEWS GIRL and APERTIF as well. FIDELIA cannot be dismissed resuming, she’s run a length off Sunlight!
Speed map/race shape: Our Gladiator and Non Paear look the pacemakers in a fairly neat speed map, with Belwazi and Mamzelle Tess following them and both Flying Krupt and Fuhryk tucked in behind midfield.
Advantaged runners: This time it is the mares only from the 1100m start. Depending on how steady the tempo is, NON PAEAR will have every chance with just 51kgs after Nugent’s claim. She seems to find herself outside the leader every start but never shirks the task. FLYING KRUPT returned well at Flemington when second, she just got over the top of MAMZELLE TESS who did it tough outside the leader. Both will be looking to peel on the turn and get the jump on LEATHER’N’LACE whose was going better than it appeared last prep, the form through Winter Bride and Booker looks good now! The Hunter pair of OUR GLADIATOR and BELWAZI will also be thereabouts.
Speed map/race shape: Couple of noted leaders here in Ashlor and Inn Keeper with Streets Of Avalon to tuck in behind over the 1200m. If they can sort themselves out without much fuss, they may set a tempo that makes running on from the second half a little tricky.
Advantaged runners: Fairly open race. STREETS OF AVALON has turned into a little beauty and this looks another race right in his wheelhouse. He may stalk these leaders and get the gun run. ASHLOR isn’t easy to run past though, as Widgee Turf found out at Wangaratta, nor is INN KEEPER – it was around this time last year he went on an ‘off-season’ winning streak. Setting out after them will be SUPERHARD who looked like a leer jet fresh then struggled on the tighter track at The Valley. Will today’s configuration suit him? Also respecting SPIRIT OF AQUADA from the back, while the ‘real’ CHAUFFEUR could blow them all away at odds.
Speed map/race shape: A bit of speed drawn across the track. How willing will Sirrconi and Hellova Street be to let Don’t Give A Damn and Princeton Spirit waltz across without fuss? Of course Naantali, Glenall and Snitzkraft will all be looking for a forward spot. Pace on!
Advantaged runners: This is another tough race with many angles. Despite the prevailing ‘circle’ pattern expecting run on horses like MANOLO BLAHNIQ to be favoured with any luck in running, Caulfield 1400m is his go. Likewise HEPTAGON, who seems to have found his sweet spot at 1400m. It is good to see NAANTALI back at this trip, she’s never missed the quinella in three goes at the track/trip. But they’ll need to get past some tough ones. HELLOVA STREET is a beauty and could get a dream run in transit, while you’ll find worse 20/1 chances floating around than SIRRCONI, SNITZKRAFT and GLENALL!
Speed map/race shape: A 200m event to round out the day. Valac only knows one way, so the big grey will go forward along with Silent Warrior and Magnapal to lead from the likes of Odeon, Sopressa and Emperor’s Way.
Advantaged runners: With weights playing a crucial role over these longer distances each of THUNDER CLOUD and VALAC must be strongly considered with 51kgs after claims. They ran second and third behind Hang Man at Flemington, with Thunder Cloud subsequently performing well at Mornington to give him an advantage over Valac who missed a run due to the washout at Albury. ODEON commands respect on the back up after a strong performance in the Golden Mile at Bendigo, this looks an ideal third up assignment and he gets a gun run. EMPEROR’S WAY is a hope at odds if he can assume a position early, while OUR LIBRETTO is lightly raced with upside and gets a soft draw.