- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4
Rail: +13m entire
Weather: Mostly fine, possible light race day shower
Back to Caulfield and the rail moves further out this week to +13 metres. Anticipate making ground won’t be easy in the circle races (1400m+), but they may start accessing the outside fast lanes from the chute sprint starts.
Speed map/race shape: We begin with the two-year-olds over 1200m. Geraldine’s Jewel went forward on debut and she looks to have the most natural speed. Yulong Ready and perhaps Super Seth will be the other handiest runners.
Advantaged runners: Early markets have come up with SUPER SETH at odds on and it must be said his Ballarat debut win was impressive. He made a sustained wide run and still bolted in by six lengths, and could probably settle closer here. That margin is only a little more than the distance MAYAN was beaten by at The Valley – but his effort from the back when given no hope was good that winner is a live chance in Sydney today. HIGHTAIL is a Magic Millions placegetter and the only multiple winner in the field, he has real claims back on dry.
Speed map/race shape: Anticipating some pressure early, stack them up, and sprint home. That early speed comes from the likes of Sunday Pray and Call It A Day crossing from the widest barriers and lead from Lizard Island, Kapaulenko and Tan Tat Trusting (if starts)
Advantaged runners: This is a fairly competitive BM 78 affair and we’ll find out more about any circle track bias here. Trusting our judgement on the track, CALL IT A DAY will be in the right spot. He gets the weight relief and finds his best trip now. KAPAULENKO is back from 1600m and is another who will keep grinding on the speed, while LIZARD ISLAND can run a race third up. RENEWAL has the right form but won’t want to be worse than mid field, happy to oppose MOUNT KILCOY and SNOGGING on that basis. We’ll find out if we’re right!
Speed map/race shape: A fairly linear speed map coming up in the mares race with Ocean Deep and Truly Discreet finding the front from barriers one and two, allowing Pop Queen and See Me Exceed to settle in the second pairing.
Advantaged runners: SEE ME EXCEED looked back to her best winning second up and she gets in here with just 52kgs after the claim. Her effort at the Lakeside circuit probably carries more effort than OCEAN DEEP’s over the same track/distance, purely due to the leader bias there. TRULY DISCREET gets the chance to race handily here and her best effort at each of her last three preparations has been third up. ANOTHER BULLSEYE hasn’t won for a while but the first up effort was promising, while happy to be against LA BELLA DIOSA and TEMPLE OF BEL from the back.
Speed map/race shape: A few on-pace runners engaged in the Saturday stayers event, with Aloft and Sin To Win likely to lead from Steel Prince, Refectory and Rockarral. Given the likely pattern, there may be some jostling for lead/rail positions early.
Advantaged runners: You’d love to own STEEL PRINCE. He’s racked up four wins and four seconds from his last eight starts and finds another winnable race here. Importantly, he likely gets the leaders back with ease from barrier two. He’ll attempt to reel in SIN TO WIN whose last two efforts at 2000m+ in country cups have been fantastic. BONDEIGER is back from the Adelaide Cup so you know he gets the trip and a cosy run from barrier one. Then there’s the new challenger in ROCKARRAL whose hat-trick of wins was followed by an admirable third to Mosh Music. MANNING ROAD worthy of entering the conversation too.
Speed map/race shape: Anticipating Jenstar will bounce from wide and join the inside-drawn Think Music in the lead here, followed by Budd Fox, Celebrity Reign and Transact.
Advantaged runners: The 2425m Galilee Series Final is a bit of a third tier Derby of sorts. SECRET BLAZE makes an excellent case for himself, when you consider he beat a few of these at Bendigo and now drops in weight, plus gets a cushy run along the rails. He beat home BUDD FOX and TRANSACT there and under the conditions may have their measure again. CONVICT SAM is a major danger, he has quickly found 2400m fourth up and looks to be lapping up the extra trip. This is a huge class rise though. AMERICAN IN PARIS is another climbing the distance ladder quickly but he caught the eye over 2200m second up. He just needs to not be forced too far back from barrier 10.
Speed map/race shape: Unfair Dismissal looks like taking the route one path and crossing from the deep to lead Outrageous and Seberate over 1440m. If he gets across easily they may again slacken the tempo and ensure making up ground is difficult.
Advantaged runners: This race is also for three-year-olds only and a few of the better chances on form may be in awkward positions. SACCHARO is the one that could overcome that and settle handily enough. His Bendigo Guineas effort was superb and he gets the blinkers third up. He comfortably beat home OUTRAGEOUS who over-raced on-pace, but did well to only be beaten 2.5 lengths. He’s a big chance if he settles here. SEBERATE led all the way to beat subsequent winner Sentimentalist first up. Treating PHONEME, TARWIN and WHAM (also excellent Bendigo Guineas) with caution due to the map.
Speed map/race shape: We’re finally back to the chute, they may come wide in the straight if there’s inside wear. High tempo affair courtesy of runners drawn middle or wider such as Delvecchio, Irresistable Girl plus Morrissy and Rushford (both emergencies) going forward.
Advantaged runners: HALVORSEN gets the favours here courtesy of the tempo. His last five runs read three wins, 1.4L second to Hawkshot and 1.25L second to Tin Hat! Off a 10-week freshen up he’s the one to hold out. COLOMBUS CIRCLE was a beaten favourite in Halvorsen’s latest win, but he’ll be in the mix again. So too MESSERSCHMITT who hails from a flying yard and has won two on the trot, and LIETER, first up after an impressive Spring debut.. They’ll have their eyes on DELVECCHIO, a speedy customer up in grade, and IRRESISTABLE GIRL, last seen finishing alongside Embrace Me.
Speed map/race shape: Good speed across the track early in the Listed Bel Esprit Stakes. Hard to see them not pushing on to lead with Eduardo, but he’ll have Desert Lashes, I Am Someone and Milwaukee for company.
Advantaged runners: Group 1 sprinter EDUARDO has been freshened for this assignment, the easiest he’s tackled in some time. His only ‘failure’ came as a $6 hope in that incredible Newmarket field. Back to Caulfield (which he loves), expect him to SP at odds on if all is well. That said, BONS AWAY did beat him home in the Newmarket and was on his heels in the Oakleigh Plate. Respect to Eduardo for attempting to do it from the front in a high pressure event but the challenger is anything but hopeless here. CREATIVITY will also enjoy stalking the speed, while DESERT LASHES and MILWAUKEE are the on-pace knockout hopes.
Speed map/race shape: Full field for the mile handicap to end the day. Call Me Handsome and Runaway should look to take this up from Lite’n in My Veins and Willi Willi in a steady tempo.
Advantaged runners: Things didn’t go right for CALL ME HANDSOME in his country cup endeavours. He finds himself back at the mile and at a track he enjoys. LITE’N’ IN MY VEINS likely gets his back in the run, which is a much kinder trip than he received in the Golden Mile at Bendigo. He is a serious player third up. Both MAHMADESIS and PLEIN CIEL come through the same race and both were badly held up at a crucial stage, if they’re making ground they’re in with a chance. Keep a close eye on FIERCE IMPACT in betting, he didn’t seem to handle the Heavy track in the Ajax.