- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4 (Tuesday)
Rail: False Outside Rail W/Post-1666 Chute; 6m 1550-500; 4m Remainder.
Weather: Possible Tuesday shower 1-5mm, fine Wednesday
We’ll be teetering on the brink of a downgrade to a Soft surface for Wednesday’s meeting at Ipswich, depending on the severity of the Tuesday showers. We’ll assume we’re on no worse than a Soft 5, with a tricky rail position emphasising the important of tactical speed.
Speed map/race shape: The former Sydneysider Elementae possesses some gate speed and he’ll be prominent with Phony Pony and Grace Of Monaco early in proceedings.
Advantaged runners: In a pretty ordinary field two runners stand out on form. ELEMENTAE is an ex-Gerald Ryan gelding making his Queensland debut He was in-and-around the money at three NSW provincial starts last Winter and has trialled soundly. GRACE OF MONACO has placed at three of her last four and will win one sooner or later. She has tactical speed and the 1000m maybe suits her more than Elementae. Everything else is a throw at the stumps.
Speed map/race shape: The 1666m start point will give horses drawn in the lower half like Itsa and Wakata the chance to be prominent early. Masstoo can come across from wider and be handy as well.
Advantaged runners: There’s a full field of 12 + 7 emergencies here so scratchings will have a big impact on the race. TICKETOME gets a few favours from the inside draw and he should be happier on top of the ground, this is a big jump in distance but he has done this before. He beat home MASSTOO a few starts back and that horse has followed a more conventional path to the mile trip, he just needs to find a spot early. ITSA was beaten a long way from hone here last start but may improve on drier, while LOTUS LEAF has shown plenty of ability running on from the back.
Speed map/race shape: Should be good speed on over the 1350m with Shauquin attempting to hold out My Song for the lead. That latter runner can give Tequila Boom and Currumbin Craft an ideal cart across into the stalking positions.
Advantaged runners: This early tempo may set this one up for a closer and CINNAMON MISSILE looks a likely candidate. He didn’t handle the Heavy at Doomben but his prior form suggests he is right up to this class. MAGIC INK is another who may be more at home on top of the ground and his finishing effort in Saturday grade last time out is an excellent reference for this. They’ll be setting out after former Sydneysider MY SONG having his first Queensland start and CURRUMBIN CRAFT, who has been there and thereabouts this prep without winning.
Speed map/race shape: Plenty of speed as you’d expect for a Class 5 over 1000m, with Eight Over, Hirtshals and Killerman’s Run the most prominent. Backslapper and General Nelson won’t want to be far off the pace either.
Advantaged runners: With all this speed on, the natural place to look is for the strongest closer, which is clearly RAIDEN. He’s having his first go for the new trainer/owners today. But getting buried from barrier one isn’t ideal so perhaps we need to find the fittest and strongest speed horse. EIGHT OVER is certainly up there, he won three on the bounce before being out-muscled late in Saturday grade. Problem is, all five wins have come on his home track. So we’ll turn to HIRTSHALS – she’s third up, back from Saturday grade, back in trip and the blinkers go on. A plan perhaps? BACKSLAPPER is the other major contender and he’ll get a cosy trail. Nice little race.
Speed map/race shape: Anticipating a testing 1666m with plenty of go-forward types engaged. Lefkas Island, Mr Dumont and So You Wish are drawn across the track but can go forward, while each of Animal Instinct, Downloading and Mother To Race Her are up in trip and will also be right up there.
Advantaged runners: Looking for fit horses here. MR DUMONT ticks that box and he’s ready to win after consecutive seconds, most recently at this track/trip. It is a similar story for LEFKAS ISLAND and the mare brings decent city class form through Reiby The Red and Belle Roc. If you’re willing to forgive GLAMOROUS MISS her Grafton form then she comes into contention, as does stablemate MOTHER TO RACE HER stepping up in trip.
Speed map/race shape: Hekansplit could enjoy some cosy sectionals in front here with very few challengers. Stablemates Enterprise Grand and Enterprise Prince will be close by.
Advantaged runners: This is a 1200m event restricted to the 3yo Colts and Geldings only. Expecting WE CONCUR to get an ideal run from the good gate. He spanked them first up then got too far back last time. He’ll be setting out after ENTERPRISE PRINCE who has enjoyed a short spell after a productive summer prep. He may have lower end stakes ambitions in the near future. TROOPER KELLY will spot them a start but his form through Rock Beat and Baccarat Baby is hard to ignore, this is a big class drop. They look the main contenders but watch COASTAL PRINCE closely with an eye to future events over further.
Speed map/race shape: a bit more natural pace in the fillies division with Roxy’s A Star and Wanna Blue the leading contenders to take up the running. A host of these will want to settle handily and the pressure should be on.
Advantaged runners: This is arguably the easiest event SUNDARBANS has contested since breaking her maiden. The ex-Hawkes filly maps for a midfield trail and is a genuine contender. So too is ENTERPRISE LOUISE but she’ll need luck from the gate, and will be making her run along with BOOM COUNTY who couldn’t have been more impressive on debut. EPIC GIRL was strong last time out when beating CONQUERMORE easily, but the latter will appreciate the drier ground. TEQUILA BOOM is far from hopeless in this field. Still may not have found the winner – plenty of chances!
Speed map/race shape: The last looks another high tempo affair with Chikorita, Emerald Kingdom, King’s Lady and Weboughtazou all going forward from the inside half. The jockeys on Reef Knot and Vienna Moon risk being caught in awkward spots from wide draws.
Advantaged runners: CHURNING returns here after two trials and this represents a significant drop in class on the company in which she raced last prep. She has drawn wide but typically gets back anyway and should enjoy the tempo. ENTERPRISE MARCH may settle just in front of her. He’s struggling to break through but has gone close twice since dropping back to this grade. KING’S LADY impressed on debut and has been kept fresh for this, while CHIKORITA is first up in five months and both have genuine chances. Tough race outside the top pick who has a clear class edge.