- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4 (Thursday)
Rail: +3m entire
Weather: Showers predicted Wednesday – Friday
There’s a smell of Brisbane Winter Carnival in the air this Saturday, with four Listed races on the card at Doomben. On Wednesday the track was rated a Good 4 but with showers predicted in the lead up to race day, expect a Soft track to be presented on the day.
Speed map/race shape: We begin with the customary staying event. Bargannon and Ruby Guru are both stepping up in trip and can go forward, leaving the low-drawn Waller runners like Xebec, Vaucluse Bay and Wu Gok to slot in handily.
Advantaged runners: The Toowoomba Cup is the main form reference with six of the 10 coming through that race. MISHANI VAIDRA had to make a sustained run from the back and stormed into the placings. She just pipped XEBEC for third, he did it tough on pace and may get a sit here. Both go up sharply in the weights. SKYTREK finished mid-pack there but made up some ground late suggesting this trip might suit, that said he hasn’t troubled the scorers for a while. RUBY GURU won a different event on the same day and is proven at this trip.
Speed map/race shape: As you’d expect in a two-year-old event there’s a few keen pace-setters in Gem Of Scotland, Howwonderfullifeis and Winning Shot. Expect plenty of pressure to be on throughout.
Advantaged runners: GEM OF SCOTLAND is undefeated in three goes, most recently edging out HOWWONDERFULLIFEIS. The latter was on debut though, settled outside the leader/winner and kept kicking, so may have the advantage from the inside draw. DEVIL’S MARBLES gets an extra 100m to run them down here but did have every hope from the one-one trail last time. WINNING SHOT impressed on debut winning on the Heavy, the winella put a huge gap on third. MAGIC BEANS has the extra fitness to run over the top if the leaders cut each other up in front.
Speed map/race shape: Again some genuine tempo will be injected into the race courtesy of I’ve Gotta Nel and Meet Mr Taylor, who could lead from Allround Glory and Dantga.
Advantaged runners: Hard to believe a few of these have only won one metropolitan race, as per the conditions. COOL DRAFTS’ winning strike rate is somewhat hampered by her racing pattern, but if they’re making up ground down the middle then she’s a huge chance off the hot tempo. Likewise POWER COMMAND who stormed past a subsequent winner to score first up. They’ll still have a task to get past I’VE GOTTA NEL and MEET MR TAYLOR who may have them strung out at the home turn. SUPER SUAVE drops in grade for this and shouldn’t be dismissed either, while three-year-old POET’S LANDING is the wildcard.
Speed map/race shape: Full field of 15 + four emergencies tackle the mile. The speed is drawn across the track with Borazon and Kilmacurragh the likeliest to lead from Lady Bing and Reiby The Red.
Advantaged runners: A host of chances here. DANSEZ was sharply up to this distance when edged out by Le Juge last time – he’s won again since and she’ll have taken plenty from the run, should get a nice trip from barrier two. THE CANDY MAN pipped KILMACURRAGH over 1350m at this track first up, this distance is more suitable for both but advantage to the former who is still lightly raced. Old timers MURAQABA and REIBY THE RED, plus PONYTALES, all finished in close quarters in the Ruby Guru race at Toowoomba. Muraqaba comes right into calculations in this race if the track is a mid-Soft or worse.
Speed map/race shape: Tom Melbourne should get his own way in front here with no other leaders engaged. Hallelujah Boy can sit off him and the rest are run-on horses or stayers. Perhaps Tangled can be at the head of the rest.
Advantaged runners: The Tails Stakes is the first of four Listed races on the card. It is also a Waller-a-thon. You’d be a brave punter to ‘tip’ him, but in theory TOM MELBOURNE looks hard to catch here. He’s fit after four runs this prep and is coming off a good third in the Doncaster Prelude. Of his stablemates, MY NORDIC HERO will take plenty of improvement from his first up effort in the same race, while SAVVY COUP has class but hasn’t hit her straps since crossing the ditch. ORDER AGAIN looks the best of the locals and should enjoy a comfortable midfield trail, he was a class above last time out in Open company. Former Victorian COOL CHAP beat Tom home in the Blamey and has been freshened for this.
Speed map/race shape: Decent speed over the 1200m courtesy of I’m A Rippa who can lead from Bold Chance and Mr Marbellouz. This leading trio might be hard to catch.
Advantaged runners: How hard they go in front will decide this race. MR MARBELLOUZ was a little disappointing in the Weetwood when out-sprinted on the way home, but does get one more chance here. He faces a worthy opponent in I’M A RIPPA, who has never missed the placings first up and can control this from the front. He didn’t put a foot wrong last prep at this level. BOLD CHANCE can’t be written off either on the speed, but he’s untested in this grade. If they overdo it then TYZONE is the one to look for running over the top. He was a little unlucky in the Weetwood but that’s a product of his racing pattern.
Speed map/race shape: Spirit’s Choice will want to lead from barrier one, but there’s going to be a charge of the light brigade coming across from out wide to pressure her. That cluster will include Exactamente, Jami Lady, Pennino, Pizonie and Takotsubo.
Advantaged runners: This is a good race. Unfortunately for SPIRIT’S CHOICE, it is hard to see a situation where she isn’t hounded the whole way, and you wouldn’t want to be on her if she if forced to give up the lead and get boxed up. So then, we need a run-on horse. EF TROOP’s Spring campaign was aborted after dual failures but a recent trial showed he’s back on his game. ROCK BEAT has won four of five and has recently enjoyed savaging the line off strong tempos. PLAGUE STONE should relish that as well – he’s a gelding who has been given time to mature by the Godolphin crew after mixing it in top company as a two-year-old. The Dunn pair THE FIRE TRAP and SANGLIER are also right in this with similar patterns.
Speed map/race shape: A big field of fillies tackle the Doomben mile. A number of these are stepping up in trip but the tempo doesn’t look too hectic. Word For Word For Word can lead, with the likes of Axella, Light Up The Room, Shahzade and Think Free all handy
Advantaged runners: She quickly reaches the mile second up but you had to be impressed with the way WORD FOR WORD got the job done first up. She could control the tempo again here and her only other run at this distance range was a second to Derby horse Cossetot. She holds an advantage being that her major rivals will all need to reel her in. They include BAREFOOT, who was rather unlucky when second to ROSENDAHL RED in the Toowoomba Guineas. Both could end up settling midfield and beyond, along with BACCARAT BABY who hasn’t found her best yet this prep but has claims on her Spring form.
Speed map/race shape: Big field for the last and the speed comes from out wide with Bel Burgess, Deep Image and Prince Of Tie all going forward along with Courtza King. Expect a frantic tempo here to round out the meeting!
Advantaged runners: There are so many chances in this one – it is $7.00 the field at time of writing!. The wide barrier won’t really matter for SNITCH who gets back anyway. He’s attacked the line strongly at both starts this prep and the extra furlong suits here. We think he’s a knockout hope. A horse like IMPASSE should get a kinder off-speed run and can improve back on drier ground, SECRET MO was very impressive beating him there. Of the leading trio, PRINCE OF TIE did it tough last time out in a similar event and was still too strong. He’s found the zone at this track and trip and goes into everything. This is the kind of race that might give TAWFIQ BOY or VELADERO the chance for a long-awaited breakthrough. There’s others too, but we can’t list them all!