- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Good 4
Rail: +5m entire
Easter Monday public holiday racing is on the Kenso track, with no rain around to threaten the track’s Good rating. A +5m rail should see on-pacers slightly advantaged throughout.
Speed map/race shape: Half the field of 12 having their first start. Of the raced, each of Czarson, Calescent and Vox Pop have shown enough previous speed to lead this, while Somervell could also be handy going off his trials.
Advantaged runners: CZARSON pays for being the best performed horse in the field at the weights, but he may still overcome it. In his first prep he beat Exhilarates (one time Slipper favourite) and Kiamichi (Slipper winner), then ran fourth in the Magic Millions. None of the raced horses have shown enough to beat him. Debutant SOMERVELL has the best chance to knock him off, both recent trials have been stylish and he will win soon. HUMAN NATURE, MORENO and SPLINTEX have place claims, but we wouldn’t be getting carried away.
Speed map/race shape: Pinvincible led on debut and it’s doubtful he’ll look to do anything different from the rail draw. Agassi and Smiling City should be in close attendance.
Advantaged runners: A few handy three-year-olds on the up here. AGASSI stepped up to this trip and ran Group 1 galloper Ringerdingding to a length in the Carbine Club, before that he chased home Green Aeon in the wet. That’s better company the others have raced in and he gets a handy run just off PINVINCIBLE, who needs to make the step up after making the most of a leader-biased Hawkesbury track to win on debut. JULKKIS has overcome difficulties at each of her last two runs to score, most recently over RITMICO, and now gets McDonald to steer her around, she’ll be on Agassi’s tail and possibly get the last shot.
Speed map/race shape: Anna’s Joy shouldn’t have any trouble in bouncing to the front from barrier three, with Ms Rodarte on her outside and Difficult To Get in the box seat. If the pattern suits the on-pacers, they may be hard to catch.
Advantaged runners: Outside the leading trio there isn’t a lot of speed involved, meaning MEDOVINA may be able to land handy in the run. She’s not won for a year but typically sprints well first up, finishing alongside MOCASSIN MISS last time in. That mare could take similar advantage of this pace situation. MS RODARTE has been given a long time to recover and mature after her issues first up in September. She’s a candidate for sharp improvement on the speed, but ANNA’S JOY will make her earn it. Her form through Echo Jet reads well. COLOMBINA has claims on form, but she may be too far back off the pace.
Speed map/race shape: A hot tempo is expected over the 1300m. Budderoo Knight, Watchdog and Catmosphere can all go forward, with Oriental Runner perhaps the onne to ease out of that battle and take a trail with Spencer and Kolding slotting in from wide.
Advantaged runners: Bookmakers have kept him short enough but KOLDING looks one of the better bets on the card. He should benefit from the early tempo and get a lovely tow into the race, so the wider draw suits. His form before the freshen up stands up well in this company as well. Both ORIENTAL RUNNER and SPENCER could be great each-way chances from similar positions in running. They’ll look to stalk the tempo and pounce. WATCHDOG is the most likely of the on-pacers but does have to contend with 60kgs and lots of pressure first up, while BELLA SUCCESS is a good fresh sprinter but will give a few others a head start.
Speed map/race shape: Two of the key on-pace hopes Fun Fact and On The White Turf have also accepted in Saturday’s Frank Packer Plate. Both will be prominent if here, but Righteousness should have the speed to cross both from the 1800m start.
Advantaged runners: The Tulloch Stakes was the best form line for the Derby, so it was little surprise MANGIONE stepped out of that event and smashed them at Gosford. He hasn’t been too harshly penalised for that and looks a major player again with McDonald sticking with him. ON THE WHITE TURF hails from the flying Richard Freedman stable and looked in the zone when winning at this trip last start. She’s a chance if here from a prominent position in the run. Bjorn had a throw at the stumps with FUN FACT in the Carbine Club and he was well respected in the market, this is easier but the lure of Group 3 prizemoney may see him run Saturday. KINGS PEAK and CALIFORNIA LONGBOW dead heated at Kembla last start – advantage to the former from today’s barrier draws.
Speed map/race shape: The fillies D’oro Rain and Pop Girl have drawn wide apart but will look to take up the running, with the likes of Cuban Sizzle, Red Chandelier and Waruna coming over from the deep to take up a prominent position.
Advantaged runners: There’s a few talented fillies taking on the older mares here over 1400m. D’ORO RAIN made a strong impression at Gosford on a shocking day and boasts an impressive strike rate. But now she steps up to city class, a level POP GIRL has already been exposed to. She comes to the races fresh after a breakthrough mile win and showed she could do it tough chasing the speed. RED CHANDELIER was scratched from Wednesday and matched it with Sure Knee (big chance Caulfield Sat) prior. She’ll be up there again. BRING THE MAGIC is forever running on in better company and on form she is arguably the best performed – but getting buried at the back from barrier one is a major turn off.
Speed map/race shape: Gretzky switches from Melbourne and should have the speed to comfortably swoop around and lead at an even gallop from Calculated, Emperor Harada and Obelos.
Advantaged runners: Waller has five in here and there’s a sense of timing about a couple of them. OBELOS is having his third Australian start, steps up to a distance range he’s won at before and Kerrin retains the ride. He’ll use his tactical speed to put himself in the race. Stablemate CALCULATED has also been set up to strike here fourth up. He appreciated the extra trip and return to drier conditions last start, running White Boots and Harmattan to half a length after leading. Weatherley’s claim offsets the weight impost with the big class drop. JULIAN ROCK remains somewhat of an unknown but caught the eye on Australian debut and will be better for the run, he’ll be making ground late with BOCELLI who was too bad to be true in the Country Championship Final.