- Warwick Farm Preview: Wednesday 1 May
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 2 Preview: 30 April 2019
- Warrnambool Carnival, Day 1 Preview: 30 April 2019
Track: Heavy 9
Rail: False Outside Rail W/P-1666m Chute; +8m 1650m-500m; +4m 500m-300m; +6m Rem.
Weather: Clearing showers
A wet week and a convoluted rail position means we’re playing with caution at Ipswich on Wednesday. In the absence of confidence about patterns, wet track form is king.
Speed map/race shape: Of 16 acceptors, half are having their first day at the races. Emergencies Stage Play and Wishfilly have previously shown speed, if they’re not here then Got No Doubt should take it up from the inside gate in company with Ruella.
Advantaged runners: PURRONI draws the far outside gate so may need some luck, but remains the one to beat in this 2yo Fillies event. The half sister to Outback Barbie closed off a slow speed on debut and can go on with it here if she handles the wet. RUELLA was held in third there but has handled the Heavy prior, which can’t be said for THIRD MARTINI after her poor last start effort – regardless, on best form she’s a chance. Big market and yard watch on all first starters – ZAVY’S HOPE in particular on debut for the Edmonds camp.
Speed map/race shape: The exposed form tells us emergencies Fallow and Leadburn Lion will look to cross and lead from the deep if they gain a run. Otherwise, the race looks largely devoid of speed – expect Picton to be handy either way from a good gate.
Advantaged runners: There’s also eight on debut in the 2YO Colts and Geldings division. PICTON always seems to find one better but has the experience and fitness over many of these. After a luckless debut CHICO MILAGRO could also go close. But there’s a handy debutant here in PERFECT QUALITY who has won both trials in attractive fashion. Needs luck from wide but could be too good regardless. The Edmonds debutants FALLOW and RUUCA deserve some attention too.
Speed map/race shape: Good natural speed among the Maiden gallopers over from the 1350m start. La Benca can be handy from the inside, but any or all of Clairvue Spirit, Lyon’s Mane, Monsun Soldier and Potawatomi can also go forward from wide.
Advantaged runners: Not the best form guide we’ve ever seen, but perhaps these leaders will set it up for the better horses running on. FELZONE plugged away well on debut in a leader-dominated, Heavy track affair. He’ll take improvement and fitness out of that. ROCK ’N’ SOL is the model of consistency in the field and a win can’t be far away, he’s got extra fitness from a recent mile run under his belt. The extra trip may suit BRAHMA AMOUR and he can be forgiven part of his beaten margin by a very smart one on a biased track at his only Heavy start. It’s a lottery from there.
Speed map/race shape: This is the Fillies and Mares division of the 1350m Maiden. Lots of potential leaders. Suspect they’ll try and use the inside to kick up on Half Moon Blue, with any of Evening, If The Shoe Fits, Creative Moss, Gratuitous of Come Alive joining her.
Advantaged runners: A dart board might be useful here. The leader HALF MOON BLUE resumes and wasn’t too bad at her only Heavy track start, that may be good enough. GRATUITOUS’ only Heavy run didn’t go to plan but she brings arguably the best form line through Rocknavar at her last start before a short spell. HURRICANE LOVE is still in her first prep and can improve third up with the extra trip. Form pretty shallow beyond that.
Speed map/race shape: Hot, hot tempo. Fanx and Suliven will both want to lead and with inside draws they may be able to hold out Cosmos Seven, Beacon, Red Marko and Miss Sara who all like to race prominently.
Advantaged runners: Bit more to work with here in the Class 5 event! Of the on-pacers, BEACON makes the most appeal. He dominated on the Heavy at Toowoomba (second was well backed in the Guineas next start) then finished close up in a hot sprint event. But if the tempo is too hectic then the run-on horses could have it handed to them. CURDLED is historically the best performed and is placed at two Heavy runs. He went to the line untested over 1100m last time and the extra distance suits. FLYING MACHINE brings excellent wet-track credentials and is looking for a hat-trick up in grade, while both GREYWOLF and BRYNEICH have claims from off the speed in this event.
Speed map/race shape: The emergency Three Stooges could lead over the mile from his low draw but will need to contend with Armet and Own Sweet Way crossing from wider. Recent winners Six Sigma and Reposition can both lob handily as well.
Advantaged runners: Perhaps some on-speed dominance here. OWN SWEET WAY has been in the money its last three starts, all on rain-affected going. He likes to race on-pace and has the fitness to go the journey. The emergency THREE STOOGES won’t be easy to get past if he gains a run. Since moving to Queensland he’s lapped up the Heavy to break his maiden, then did all the work and was just pipped second up. Fit, third up and flying, he’s a big chance. Another converted Queenslander is REPOSITION who has a very similar story at his last two starts, he’ll stalk the speed and get every chance. SIX SIGMA did it tough last start but still not sure he handles the bottomless track.
Speed map/race shape: Don’t You Know Him only knows one way and will look to find the front from a middle draw. There’s a host of these that could feasibly race handily, but to date none have demonstrated the gate speed to challenge the expected leader.
Advantaged runners: The track conditions are the big query for DON’T YOU KNOW HIM. Otherwise, he’s a clear top pick as a progressive sprinter who could simply be too fast for this lot. Back in December he finished alongside ENTERPRISE MARCH on a Soft surface, that runner is now fifth up after consecutive placings and that fitness will be crucial. LYRICAL PRINCE loves the Heavy tracks but fitness is a query. They may ride BUCK BAY slightly quieter here and that could be key, he’s a previous Heavy winner.
Speed map/race shape: A few speedy ones standing out at the head of the speed map. Arrow Express and Round Mountain Gem have drawn wide and are likely to take on Pizonie, High Cost and Godfather’s Girl from the inside gates for the early ascendancy.
Advantaged runners: Plenty of winning chances. Of the on-pacers, PIZONIE brings superior form through Spirit’s Choice and Rock Beat. He’s a 1000m speedster but to date unproven in the wet and may have company in ARROW EXPRESS the whole way. She’s sped around Gatton like a greyhound at her last couple but this is a trickier affair. Also prominent will be HIGH COST who has placed twice on the Heavy this prep. If they overdo it, which is highly possible, then SIR MAGIC and MUDDY ROPE can close – they have claims on form in stronger events – while SMARTYPY and ARCHADE will also get their chances.